The European office leasing market
As an economic crisis adds itself to the global health crisis, it might be interesting to take another look at at the link between growth and office leasing over the last twenty years, in the main European leasing markets,
The orchestrated and almost total shut down of European economies has led to a significant reduction in business, resulting in new reduced revisions of economic growth forecasts. The Euro Zone PIB has shrunk to 2.3% for the first quarter of 2020. A further and more pronounced reduction is expected for the second quarter. Spain, France, Italy and Belgium are expected to lower the Euro Zone PIB whilst Germany and Holland are expected to be above average for Europe.
This outside shock is affecting both offer and demand. The lessons learnt in 2008 have pushed Governments to implement rapid and exceptional recovery plans. These involve two objectives: a massive injection of liquidities to maintain human and material capital pending a gradual restart of the economic machine. The impact of this crisis over the whole of 2020 will be huge even if some uncertainty remains.
With a university education in local economic development, Daniel While began his career as business establishment consultant to local authorities. In 2006, he joined the Institut de l’Epargne immobilière et Foncière as analyst, and specialised in the world of unlisted real estate funds (SCPIs and OPCIs for France).
He is co-author of the book Les OPCI published by Delmas (September 2008). He joined Primonial REIM in 2017, where he held the position of Development Director, then Research & Strategy Director from 2019.
Henry-Aurélien Natter joined Primonial REIM as Research Manager in January 2018. He has the mission of developing the analyses of the Research & Strategy Department on the real estate markets, the economy and capital in France and in Europe.
Henry-Aurélien Natter began his career at Les Echos Etudes (formerly Eurostaf), then at C&W (formerly DTZ), and lastly at BNP PRE, where he acquired solid and varied experience in real estate research, strategy and finance. He is qualified with an AES degree in Business Management, a Masters Decree in management and SME management, and an International Master in commerce and marketing.
After a successful internship in Primonial REIM France's Research and Strategy team, Adrien Isidore joined the team as an economist-statistician in late 2020. Adrien holds a Master's degree in Economics and Statistics from Panthéon-Assas.
Adrien Isidore decided to become an economist after an exchange program in Australia during which he worked in international research groups on various projects, giving him a taste for research. He also holds a bachelor's degree in economics and a university degree in mathematics and finance. His role is to propose innovative statistical tools and to write studies on different countries while providing support in the structuring of the department at the European level.
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