Real estate convictions: Europe in the 3rd quarter of 2019
Although uncertainties and nervousness are increasing, real estate seems to be a reassuring pocket of stability.
To support the economy, The European Central Bank(BCE) has remained very accommodating by pursuing its policy of low rates. Thus, at the end of the third quarter of 2019, the States able to borrow at negative rates increased in number, as Germany joined France, the Netherlands, Finland, Belgium and Austria, while Italy, Spain, Portugal and Greece remained in positive territory.
This low-rate lending policy mechanically strengthens the risk premium in favour of real estate. With over €180bn investment over nine months in 2019, €115bn of which for the Eurozone alone, the European commercial real estate market has again attracted capital. The United Kingdom continues to materialise a certain defiance of investors owing to Brexit (€35bn** in Q3 2019, -27%). Germany recorded a fall in its investments (€40bn in Q3 2019, -10%) owing to a shortage of available products and prices becoming increasingly higher on certain asset types.
Carried by its domestic economy, France remains a flagship destination for foreign capital and registered good momentum of investment volume (€23bn** in Q3 2019, +19%).
Henry-Aurélien Natter, Research Manager at Primonial REIM, reviews the different markets.
**Commercial real estate designates offices, shops, logistics, services real estate and residential property targeted at institutional firms
With a university education in local economic development, Daniel While began his career as business establishment consultant to local authorities. In 2006, he joined the Institut de l’Epargne immobilière et Foncière as analyst, and specialised in the world of unlisted real estate funds (SCPIs and OPCIs for France).
He is co-author of the book Les OPCI published by Delmas (September 2008). He joined Primonial REIM in 2017, where he held the position of Development Director, then Research & Strategy Director from 2019.
Henry-Aurélien Natter joined Primonial REIM as Research Manager in January 2018. He has the mission of developing the analyses of the Research & Strategy Department on the real estate markets, the economy and capital in France and in Europe.
Henry-Aurélien Natter began his career at Les Echos Etudes (formerly Eurostaf), then at C&W (formerly DTZ), and lastly at BNP PRE, where he acquired solid and varied experience in real estate research, strategy and finance. He is qualified with an AES degree in Business Management, a Masters Decree in management and SME management, and an International Master in commerce and marketing.
After a successful internship in Primonial REIM France's Research and Strategy team, Adrien Isidore joined the team as an economist-statistician in late 2020. Adrien holds a Master's degree in Economics and Statistics from Panthéon-Assas.
Adrien Isidore decided to become an economist after an exchange program in Australia during which he worked in international research groups on various projects, giving him a taste for research. He also holds a bachelor's degree in economics and a university degree in mathematics and finance. His role is to propose innovative statistical tools and to write studies on different countries while providing support in the structuring of the department at the European level.
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