Real estate facing the turning point of the 2020s

How will the crisis affect the real estate market?

The years 2020-2022 are a turning point in the global economy: no geographical area, no asset class is spared. Mais chacune est touchée différemment. Cette note se propose d’examiner la résilience de l’immobilier européen et français face à ce changement d’époque.

Before and after February 24. The current situation is characterized by a shift in central bank policies in the face of the inflationary threat, with consequences for the real estate risk premium and the hierarchy between stocks, bonds and real estate.

At the end of 2021 inflation was primarily the result of post-Covid bottlenecks: all major countries were reopening their economies at the same time, creating tension in supply chains. By nature, this inflation was transitory and did not require drastic tightening of ECB monetary policy.

Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, the nature of inflation has changed. C’est la composante énergétique et alimentaire de l’inflation qui a explosé. Le conflit a congestionné l’agriculture ukrainienne et le jeu des sanctions et des contre-sanctions perturbe les livraisons. Si le conflit se prolonge, la substitution d’énergies alternatives au gaz russe (GNL américain notamment) ne se fera pas sans augmentation des coûts. Part of the inflation will then be structural. As a result, economic growth forecasts in Europe are on the decline, with a probability of recession in 2023.

Read the full study

Real Estate Perspectives

The team

Daniel While
Daniel While Research, Strategy & Sustainability Director

Henry-Aurélien Natter
Henry-Aurélien Natter Head of Research