Immobilier et cycle de vie
The student residence market is in rapid growth
Whilst for 2010-2014, the average annual investment volume was evaluated at €2.3 Billion; this has been multiplied by a factor of 3 for 2015-2019, reaching more than €7.3 Billion per year. That means a total of almost €50 billion euro in transactions since 2010. With 32% in investments, almost €20 billion, the European student residence market (excluding the United Kingdom) has increased significantly since 2015; the two largest European markets being France and Germany
L’Europe (Royaume-Uni inclus) compte de près de 20 millions d’étudiants. L’Allemagne, la France, le Royaume-Uni et l’Espagne sont les pays les plus importants avec plus de 2 millions d’étudiants par pays. La population des 20-24 ans dans l’Union Européenne (hors Royaume-Uni) devrait se maintenir, passant donc de 24,1 millions en 2020 à 24,6 millions en 2030.
Le nombre d’étudiants en mobilité internationale diplômante, généralement considérés comme la population cible des résidences étudiantes, a connu une forte progression ces dernières années passant de près de 3 millions en 2005 à plus de 5 millions en 2018. Avec plus de 1,6 million d’étudiants étrangers et intracommunautaires en 2018, l’Europe concentre environ le tiers de ces étudiants.
Alors que les projections des étudiants en mobilité devraient avoisiner les 10 millions à l’horizon de 2030 au niveau mondial, une redistribution des cartes pourrait avoir lieu en Europe. Avec le Brexit, effectif depuis janvier 2020, la mobilité future des étudiants pourrait être impactée. En effet, à partir de 2021 le Royaume-Uni pourrait ne plus être qu’un pays partenaire au même titre que la Turquie ou la Norvège ce qui aurait pour conséquence, pour le Royaume-Uni, une baisse des mobilités étudiantes et des partenariats universitaires.
Whilst global forecasts imply that the number of mobile students should reach 10 million by 2030, Europe will be subject to some major changes. Brexit, which came into force in January 2020, will have a major impact on student mobility. As of 2021 the United Kingdom will no longer be a partner country, just like Turkey and Norway, which will mean fewer overseas students and university exchanges for the United Kingdom
An analytical table for investment in European student residences
To identify the most attractive markets, Primonial REIM has analysed various criteria and presented them in a table (percentage of internationally mobile students, market liquidity (average investment volume over 10 years) and the total number of students in higher education). Whilst the United Kingdom seems to be the most established market in Europe, long-term risks have been identified for this market. France and Germany stand out as safe growth markets, Austria and Holland also appear to be in periods of growth. Conversely, the Southern European countries are less attractive. For student residences, Primonial REIM recommends:
• markets that are attractive to internationally mobile students since they stimulate the demand for high quality student residences;
• an attractive position in the price and rent cycle of European metropolitan areas with internationally reputed universities.
With a university education in local economic development, Daniel While began his career as business establishment consultant to local authorities. In 2006, he joined the Institut de l’Epargne immobilière et Foncière as analyst, and specialised in the world of unlisted real estate funds (SCPIs and OPCIs for France).
He is co-author of the book Les OPCI published by Delmas (September 2008). He joined Primonial REIM in 2017, where he held the position of Development Director, then Research & Strategy Director from 2019.
Henry-Aurélien Natter joined Primonial REIM as Research Manager in January 2018. He has the mission of developing the analyses of the Research & Strategy Department on the real estate markets, the economy and capital in France and in Europe.
Henry-Aurélien Natter began his career at Les Echos Etudes (formerly Eurostaf), then at C&W (formerly DTZ), and lastly at BNP PRE, where he acquired solid and varied experience in real estate research, strategy and finance. He is qualified with an AES degree in Business Management, a Masters Decree in management and SME management, and an International Master in commerce and marketing.
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