Week 13th to 17th april 2020
A consensus is emerging that the lockdown exit strategy (France plans to lift its lockdown on 11th May) will involve reinforced social distancing (e.g. face masks, a ban on gatherings of people, cafés/restaurants remaining shut), systematic testing and continued quarantine for certain groups of people (senior citizens), not forgetting the continued closure of borders. It is difficult to set a time limit for these measures, especially as a hypothetical vaccine is not expected until 2021. Such
an outlook means less visibility for market operators and thus dampens the expectations of consumers and businesses alike, which will have a crucial role to play as the strength of the recovery depends on them.
The residential real estate segment’s indicators were extremely sound before the Covid-19 crisis: transactions in the existing housing market had reached a record high (>1million in 2019) for the second year running; prices were rising substantially but under control (+3.9% in the Paris region and +3.6% in the provinces in the 4th quarter of 2019 year-on-year); and mortgage rates were falling (-32
basis points between December 2018 and December 2019). Above all, institutional investors were still keen on block residential assets in France (€3.5bn invested in 2019) and especially across Europe (€62.7bn, of which €18.3bn in Germany despite the rent cap in Berlin). New property sales and construction starts, on the other hand, had begun to dip somewhat as they often do in the run-up to local elections.
The team
With a university education in local economic development, Daniel While began his career as business establishment consultant to local authorities. In 2006, he joined the Institut de l’Epargne immobilière et Foncière as analyst, and specialised in the world of unlisted real estate funds (SCPIs and OPCIs for France).
He is co-author of the book Les OPCI published by Delmas (September 2008). He joined Primonial REIM in 2017, where he held the position of Development Director, then Research & Strategy Director from 2019.
Henry-Aurélien Natter joined Primonial REIM as Research Manager in January 2018. He has the mission of developing the analyses of the Research & Strategy Department on the real estate markets, the economy and capital in France and in Europe.
Henry-Aurélien Natter began his career at Les Echos Etudes (formerly Eurostaf), then at C&W (formerly DTZ), and lastly at BNP PRE, where he acquired solid and varied experience in real estate research, strategy and finance. He is qualified with an AES degree in Business Management, a Masters Decree in management and SME management, and an International Master in commerce and marketing.
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