How will the crisis affect the real estate market?
The years 2020-2022 are a turning point in the global economy: no geographical area, no asset class is spared. Mais chacune est touchée différemment. Cette note se propose d’examiner la résilience de l’immobilier européen et français face à ce changement d’époque.
Before and after February 24. The current situation is characterized by a shift in central bank policies in the face of the inflationary threat, with consequences for the real estate risk premium and the hierarchy between stocks, bonds and real estate.
At the end of 2021 inflation was primarily the result of post-Covid bottlenecks: all major countries were reopening their economies at the same time, creating tension in supply chains. By nature, this inflation was transitory and did not require drastic tightening of ECB monetary policy.
Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, the nature of inflation has changed. C’est la composante énergétique et alimentaire de l’inflation qui a explosé. Le conflit a congestionné l’agriculture ukrainienne et le jeu des sanctions et des contre-sanctions perturbe les livraisons. Si le conflit se prolonge, la substitution d’énergies alternatives au gaz russe (GNL américain notamment) ne se fera pas sans augmentation des coûts. Part of the inflation will then be structural. As a result, economic growth forecasts in Europe are on the decline, with a probability of recession in 2023.
The team
With a university education in local economic development, Daniel While began his career as business establishment consultant to local authorities. In 2006, he joined the Institut de l’Epargne immobilière et Foncière as analyst, and specialised in the world of unlisted real estate funds (SCPIs and OPCIs for France).
He is co-author of the book Les OPCI published by Delmas (September 2008). He joined Primonial REIM in 2017, where he held the position of Development Director, then Research & Strategy Director from 2019.
Henry-Aurélien Natter joined Primonial REIM as Research Manager in January 2018. He has the mission of developing the analyses of the Research & Strategy Department on the real estate markets, the economy and capital in France and in Europe.
Henry-Aurélien Natter began his career at Les Echos Etudes (formerly Eurostaf), then at C&W (formerly DTZ), and lastly at BNP PRE, where he acquired solid and varied experience in real estate research, strategy and finance. He is qualified with an AES degree in Business Management, a Masters Decree in management and SME management, and an International Master in commerce and marketing.
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